Sustainable Tourism Model on National Park Enclave Area (Case Study: Ranu Pani, Lumajang Regency)

Abstract

The Lumajang Regency Government is eager to develop the tourism destination of Ranu Pani, located in the enclave of Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park (TNBTS), into a sustainable tourism destination. The objective of this research is to develop a sustainable tourism model in Ranu Pani, Lumajang Regency, by considering the balance between the actual conditions and the capacity of Environmental Carrying Capacity (DDTL). The method used refers to the calculation of DDTL by Cifuentes (1992) and the analysis of model development and scenarios using a dynamic system approach on two components: tourism carrying capacity and tourist dynamics. This allows for the adjustment of the relationship between variables and predictions of conditions over time. The results show that the DDTL values of Ranu Pani are PCC (9,941), RCC (1,228), and ECC (1,228). According to the model simulation, the carrying capacity of tourism in Ranu Pani will remain constant until 2030. However, changes in marketing variables will significantly impact the number of tourist visits in the tourist dynamics component. By combining these two components, the model predicts that by 2024, assuming an increase in tourist visits, the number of tourists will exceed the carrying capacity of Ranu Pani tourism. To prevent and maintain the stability of tourism activities and preserve the environment in Ranu Pani, a developed scenario is to limit the number of tourists to 50% per day in Ranu Pani.