Prognosis of Sugarcane Yield in Coimbatore District

Abstract

Employment and the Indian economy are heavily reliant on agriculture. Accurate yield forecasting is essential for developing and structuring agricultural plans. This paper aims to evaluate the stability of sugarcane yield and project future yields. Secondary data was obtained from the Season and Crop Report, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Tamil Nadu, on sugarcane yields from 1960-1961 to 2018-2019. After examining two models, it was determined that ARIMA (2,1,1) is the most effective time series model for predicting sugarcane yield. The selected ARIMA model shows better results in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute ScaledError and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. There is a significant increase between the period 2022-2024. The remaining years had a moderate level of yield. This study has the potential to assist farmers, agriculturalists, and government sectors in making informed decisions to proactively address agricultural challenges.